Battery Insiders Reflection - Steve LeVine

0:00Transcript

0:00Welcome to Battery Insiders, your podcast providing you insights and the fascinating world of batteries. Hosted by Bhavya Jha and Simon Engelke. And we are back, back to Battery Insiders. And today we're really excited to actually have a guest with us, Steve Levine, which we are really fortunate to already have with us in the Clubhouse session. But now we're going to have a bit of a reflection of some of the topics we have discussed there and go a bit further here with Bhavya and myself. And maybe just like two or three words about Steve Levine. Probably many of you have read his book, The Powerhouse, which is giving really fascinating insight on the Vs, but also a bit of context and history to it also from a different geopolitical standpoint. And now he's also the author of The Mobilist on Medium, which is a really exciting blog book, summarizing many topics. And you also spoke about this in Clubhouse as well. So nice to have you with us, Steve.

1:01Thanks a lot. Great to be here, Simon. Thank you. Bhavya, maybe do you want to take a bit of a head, you know, maybe take your policy head? And I know these are some of the topics that you're quite passionate about. And I think also Steve is. So maybe you want to. Yes, absolutely. Welcome to Battery Insiders. Thanks, Bhavya. We're lucky to have you join us today so we can bring some people into the inside of the battery world. Some of the things that we talked about, we touched on, first off, a number of topics. And, you know, as someone who is, you know, as Simon mentioned with my policy and regulatory hat on, what are some of your thoughts on policy driving, you know, standardization in batteries? And also, one thing I know you touched on towards the end was who's going to be like the winner of the current battery movement. You know, we have some big players, Russia, China, and of course, the U.S. and a number of others.

2:02How do you think that policy is driving change in those landscapes, in this battery evolution globally that we're seeing right now? Yeah. Yeah. So one issue is policy. Just how is it driving this big shift into EVs, electric mobility? And the other one is standardization. And just going in the same order you presented, we're going super slow and we need to go faster, right? So there shouldn't be charging stations, for example, battery packs and so on. You can mess around with the chemistry, you know, do anything you want with the formulation and so on. But, you know, we need to move more quickly into getting standard should be agnostic when I show up with whatever EV at a charging station. I can plug in. I can fast charge. And, of course, the technology era has been, you know, light bulbs were not always all the same size to plug in. And electric sockets. There were a ton of more variety than we see now. Now around the world, I think, aren't there just three or four now, right?

3:37There's the Russian one, you know, the fat round and then the European one and then the UK one and the US. Right. That's about it. Right. That sounds right. Yeah. So we need to get there and we need to get there faster. On policy, well, you're seeing, you know, you're seeing, you know, the outcome of policy that Europe is on fire. It is it's going gangbusters. And there really is the potential for, you know, your Nordic region to be the new Taiwan. Germany wants to be the new Taiwan. Right. Or and when I say that, I mean, the Taiwan of batteries. And that means capturing the entire supply chain. Both of them want to capture the entire supply chain. And that that is how economics have to happen. And the Chinese, you know, playbook that they used with solar to capture the solar space did the same thing with batteries. And that and that that that's why they are way ahead and steered all of these foreign automobile companies doing business in China.

4:54OK. But you've got to use CATL. You can make your cars here, but you've got to use CATL came out of nowhere. How is this possible? The biggest battery company in the world now is this is this lithium-ion company that no one ever heard of five years ago. And that's why. And the U.S. is nowhere in this. OK, I was going to ask, where does the U.S. fall in all of this? That's my interest area as well. Well, it's it's so the car companies are timid. Look at, you know, GM is pounding its chest and and so on. But it is not as as aggressive as VW. VW is saying, hey, we're building six gigafactories this decade. We have put is it three hundred million in a QuantumScape? It's it's it's it's I think it's three hundred million. It could be more. It's not less. And and and so they're there. You know, we're we're doing how much has GM put into SES.

5:58Right. So the SES is their solid-state play. I think it's a few tens tens of millions of dollars at at the most. And so GM is serious, but not as serious as VW. And that's a big difference. So so I but Biden is putting this. One hundred seventy four billion dollars behind it, but it behind the push. But it really matters. Do you have buy in by the commercial players? I'm not convinced. So I'm worried about the U.S. in in it's not game over, but it's it's like the first inning. The first quarter is over. You know, we're in the second quarter. You know, we're like, you know, you know, three goals behind. And, you know, and so, you know, we've got to be smarter. So chicken or the egg, which comes first? Policy, policy drives it or will industry drive it? And do you think that that's country specific just based on the examples you mentioned? Well, I think that the companies need to have the conviction to get out in front of demand.

7:16That's a big thing. So VW, BMW, Mercedes, they've all they've all decided we are going to build. We think this is going to happen. So we're building now. And the U.S. companies have not. And especially Ford. And so GM is kind of there. And policy. Right. So getting the supply chain in order in incentivizing through tax structure and so on. The building of battery foundries. Charging infrastructure. Fast charging infrastructure. Subsidies for the purchase of EVs. But this is like a five-year play. Like we got to do this now. Because in five years is the inflection point. Sticker price parity. That's when the gun goes off. And that's the race. You've got to be ready at that moment. Right. So we've got to move now. Like today is Monday. Should have happened Sunday. Right. It's 11 here. I'm in D.C. It's 1141 by noon. Like this should start. Okay. We have our charge. Simon, any thoughts? No, I think it's really fascinating also to hear this.

8:43You know, I think that's something where it's so interesting to have all these things. Also global perspectives on these topics. Right. Because you talk a lot about Europe. And of course, you know, I'm based in Munich and Germany. And I can see, of course, as you say, you know, I think there's some really exciting movement. But I think there's still also a lot of hesitation. You know, still in love the supply chain player. Like also in love the industry, you know, like providing all the parts. Because a lot of the business models, which existed for a long time, are really getting disrupted. And I think, you know, I think to see some of these companies, you know, going all the way and like, you know, really like, you know, really transitioning the entire business is still not, you know, that clear for some of them. So I think I like how optimistic you are about Europe. And I think I think you still has a chance.

9:24You know, like I personally, I'm not I'm not. I don't think there's anything lost there. But I'm absolutely with you that it's it's now right. Like it's really about moving now. And if you don't, then others will. Because I think I saw some interesting studies also about how much more it will cost you if you don't transition your industry now. Because if you're too late and then all the new, you know, regulations are in place that you cannot sell anymore, ACEs and things like that, it's going to be quite tricky for some of these industries if they don't move fast enough. So they may be a bit more optimistic in some way about the US. But I think it's probably always easier from the outside as often. One thing I'm also kind of I found really fascinating, which really stuck with me during the session was the role of journalism in all this, because I think it's something where which maybe sometimes it's not like, you know, as present.

10:14I mean, it's very present. That's how we, you know, get the information. But on the other hand, it's not that present. What's actually the role in this? You know, what's how is this really steering conversation? How is this influencing also policy? I think that media has a big role in this. And one thing I think I really like what you said was that, you know, journalism is not really there to take sides. It's more about like, you know, providing the right information and, you know, providing accurate information that you think that journalism or journalists, especially journalists like yourself who, you know, write about this new transition and technologies are put into this bucket of, you know, being completely biased about it. But I think you mentioned also that you see it more from something, you know, that you're an expert, that you're a professional as a journalist. Try and understand the truth. That's what you're going to write about. And I would just maybe you can recap a bit to see again your role in this, you know, as a journalist and also from a policy standpoint.

11:07Yeah, I think it is important. So let's talk about the battery space. Batteries have a long history of exaggeration and fraud. And this is because it's not because fraudsters gravitate to batteries. It's that batteries have traditionally been so hard to to crack. And so because the stakes are so high if you succeed, but it's so hard to make that that breakthrough, you get the the the system incentivizes exaggeration to to qualify for grants, to get investment. You have to say things that you hope become true, but aren't true at the moment. And and and so it's it's it's it's and so you you get so there's there's that factor. The other factor is. The other factor is that there's something about the the clean energy space that's not just tech, you get evangelists. And so and so journalists, most journalists in the green energy space are evangelists. They are activists there. And so they're not dispassionate, objective journalists. The New Yorker's climate, main climate writer, Bill McGibbon calls himself a journalist.

12:39He's not a journalist. He is the biggest activist in the climate space. He should not be a published. The New Yorker should not publish him. The New Yorker should quote him in stories written by journalists, written by objective journalists. And so I think to to the degree that in batteries, you get reporters who are establishing a distance between them and their and their subject matter. And and and giving the reader some some insight into which technologies are real, which are are are are purely aspirational, which look like someone's exaggerating, which like someone's real. And so, like, that's a real service and and and and. You know, there's there's there's there. There's a a thing that's different from a year a few years ago. There's a transparency movement in in in in batteries. You know, Jeff Don, the you know, the famous battery researcher in Halifax. He he you know, the Don rule, which which, you know, I put in the powerhouse. He doesn't call it the Don rule, but but it is.

14:07And that's OK, give me all of your data, but put it all on one slide because, you know, battery researchers do this trick of giving you five straight slides, which have different which show different parts of the battery, but with different parameters or or or or there's something to have capacity, but not specific energy or, you know, the voltage change, the temperature. And and and and and so the transparency movement, you're seeing battery companies because it's so competitive and it's really happening now. We're moving from aspiration to actually things happening. So commercial competitions. So they are competing by putting out real data. And so the and so there's more pressure. Get that data out there. We've got to be sharper. About what we're seeing in that data and and and be outspoken when the data is not what it's purported to be. So anyway, all of these things are the job of the journalists covering this space, but it's also the job of everyone else, the researchers.

15:26And, you know, it really is important that this happens and that it happens the right way. And so I hope that one, you know, people stop being cheerleaders and stop being part of a movement and stand back and do your job right. So one thing that I've been thinking about that you kind of touched on transparency and maybe fraud is a strong word. But when I first stepped into the battery world, I didn't really think too hard about what happens to the batteries at end of life. And now that's kind of the bread and butter of my battery questions. That's like what I focus on. And so looking at battery end of life and kind of the ambiguity around it, I know a big debate has been recycling or repurposing. And I just wanted to ask you, like, what are your thoughts on battery end of life options? And do you have a particular process or inclination towards one of the options available? Okay. Well, I guess I'd like to make this a conversation because I haven't thought about it that way.

16:53I mean, so I've looked at Redwood Materials, you know, talked to JB. And I know about Brump, you know, the CATL company. And so the other one is Live. What is the other big one in the U.S.? Life cycle. Life cycle. Life cycle. And so are these, so I've just, and here I'm violating my own rules. I guess I've just taken them at their word, you know, when they're describing, you know, we're recycling almost every single bid. And here, look at this picture. This is the resulting cathode powder and we're sending it right back out. Is that, are they exaggerating? No, I mean, not particularly. I think different companies, I mean, you know, offer services and some, I guess maybe as having looked into the European regulations a bit more, I know that there's a little more ownership onus put on the manufacturer. So, you know, if you put it out, you should be the one either to recycle it or have guidance around where it goes.

18:10The customer needs to know that. But I do know that that is not as structured in the U.S. And so it sounds like in the past you've had more interaction with some U.S.-based companies, but it's different around the world. And I really thought recycling, that was kind of what was ingrained in me at first, just based on my own experience, research, and talking to people. But when I was abroad for some time, I realized, no, there's a really big question about repurposing and should we be making the most of batteries during their second life before they go to recycling? So the question remains clearly, and there is no answer. That's, I think, the biggest realization. Well, but you can see how those elements can live together, right? So you can have people debating, what should we do with it after? Yeah, but as long as something is done, and, but you have, but you're saying, though, this important fact that, that, that if some, if they do end up in a recycling place, that that's real.

19:15They really are being recycled. They really are turning out stuff. It's not like plastics, you know, where we think we're recycling the plastics, but actually they're not recyclable. Is the, yes, no, I, yes, absolutely. I do think that they are recyclable. Like there are three ways you can recycle batteries. So we, we'll save that one for another time, but, um, you know, there are questions around, okay, if a company, if a country is trying to drive circular economy, is that, is that recycling then happening in country? Is it being shipped elsewhere? Import export gets involved. You know, you're talking about at the end of the day, you're just talking about a sustainable technology that you're, you know, selling as such and want to make sure, um, that we're sustainable, not only in the manufacturing, but also in the life cycle management as a whole. And, um, so, yeah, I, I just think it's a, it's interesting to hear everybody's perspective on it, but I know what you didn't know in that regard.

20:17You know, we hear, we hear what we're told. And I mean, having been in the industry for a bit, I do think that it's, it's not something that companies aren't thinking about, and there are some partnerships with third-party vendors and, um, you know, some in-house initiatives. Like for example, I know Tesla is like creating a cell battery recycling center in Nevada and, you know, things that are on the horizon. But as much as like at noon, we need to think about what we're going to, how we can move the battery evolution forward. I also think that end of life should be a consideration. Yeah. So we're down to T minus six minutes now. Yeah. Well, I just, I just could say that, that, well, so I hear recycling talked about a lot and it's not a do-gooder thing. Like it's, it's like, it's, uh, it's seen as part of the economics, right? Yes, absolutely. I think also one thing, but we kind of touched on, we also discussed this before in some of the sessions is, you know, it doesn't make sense to take batteries in a different use case, right?

21:20From an EV to stationary and some of these things. And I think at the end of the day, as you say, I think it's all about creating a fully circular economy. Um, I think it's, it's something exciting. We also see in other domains. And, but I think especially in batteries, we have a really nice opportunity, right? Because it's chemistry. You can literally, you know, you can fully recycle these things. And, um, and as you say, I think also financially, it's also the right thing to do and also for the planet. Um, so yeah, I'm quite positive that we will get somewhere, but I'm with you. I think it's, uh, I think one thing isn't that people didn't estimate, right? Like it didn't expect us that these batteries would last that long. So now people are still waiting for the batteries to still come in and they are, they're always better than what people think, which is, I guess a good thing, but also confused. I think many people.

22:05Yeah. What, what is going to happen if, well, if million mile batteries end up being a standard thing? Just going to delay it. Right. I mean, it's going to delay the, the, the reason for the recycling, but I think, um, as you say, I think it's a, it's really exciting and it's, um, yeah, I'm really curious. And I think it was also was mentioned in the, in the, in the session itself that, you know, people are curious for your next book, for like the powerhouse too, and kind of thinking about what will be the, you know, the, the future of the history in a way. Yeah. Yeah. I, I am, I'm thinking I've, I, I, I, I, I don't usually speak about these things, uh, publicly and I'm, I'm not going to now either, but I, something's cooking. That's a good teaser. Yeah. We're looking, I'm curious. We're looking forward to it. No, but I think it makes a lot of sense. And I mean, yeah, it's definitely, uh, it's a, it's a, it's a sort of material, I think.

23:05And I think it will just get more and more. So that's, that's exciting. Yeah. Amazing. I think then probably it's a good time now to, to, um, maybe also wrap this up for today. Although I know we could talk for hours more. I definitely, I could, and I'm sure, but we, I hope for you, Steve as well. Yeah. Definitely have more questions, but we'll leave it. We'll leave it for part two. Exactly. But maybe it can also be convenient at some point, have another reflection. It'd actually be quite fun, maybe even a year or so to kind of think about what has happened since and see. Yeah. This, it move, it moves, you know, when I, when I'm talking to, you know, to all of our, our, the people who, our community, right. The battery people's community, um, every week there's something that is that something big happens, you know, you can, so I'm writing. I'm writing full out stories twice a week, right. Tuesday and, and Friday.

23:59And there's concern right at the beginning when I started doing it, is there really enough happening? Yes, there is. There, there really is. Every time there's some, like, uh, it's, it's not just a news event happens, but it's, it's a news event that means something. And, and, and it has some, uh, larger implication that we need to focus on. And, uh, it's, it's crazy. It's a crazy time. Absolutely. But also an exciting one and very grateful to have you. And I'm very excited always to read your, um, updates and yeah. Looking forward to it to next time. Thanks for joining us. Thanks. Thanks. Thanks, Bavia. Thanks, Simon.